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七禾網(wǎng) 時(shí)間:2023-11-29 11:07:11 來源:七禾網(wǎng)

巴菲特:熊市是朋友,牛市是敵人!


It should be an enormous advantage for investors in stocks to have those wildly fluctuating valuations placed on their holdings – and for some investors, it is. After all, if a moody fellow with a farm bordering my property yelled out a price every day to me at which he would either buy my farm or sell me his – and those prices varied widely over short periods of time depending on his mental state – how in the world could I be other than benefited by his erratic behavior? If his daily shout-out was ridiculously low, and I had some spare cash, I would buy his farm. If the number he yelled was absurdly high, I could either sell to him or just go on farming. 

對(duì)股票投資者來說,股價(jià)大幅波動(dòng)按說應(yīng)該是個(gè)巨大的優(yōu)勢(shì)。實(shí)際上,對(duì)一部分投資者來說確實(shí)如此。畢竟,如果一個(gè)與我相鄰的農(nóng)場(chǎng)主,這家伙情緒忽高忽低,每天給我出個(gè)報(bào)價(jià),要么買我的,要么把他的賣給我;這些價(jià)格短期波動(dòng)巨大,取決于他的情緒。我怎么可能不從他古怪的行為中受益呢?如果他報(bào)價(jià)低得荒唐,而我有一些閑錢,我會(huì)買下他的農(nóng)場(chǎng)。如果他喊的數(shù)字高得離譜,我要么賣給他,要么種我的地不理他。


Owners of stocks, however, too often let the capricious and often irrational behavior of their fellow owners cause them to behave irrationally as well. Because there is so much chatter about markets, the economy, interest rates, price behavior of stocks, etc., some investors believe it is important to listen to pundits – and, worse yet, important to consider acting upon their comments. 

然而,股民經(jīng)常被其他股民的情緒和非理性行為帶動(dòng)著,自己也變得不理性。因?yàn)橛刑嚓P(guān)于市場(chǎng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)、利率、股價(jià)走勢(shì)的說法,一些投資者認(rèn)為聽取股評(píng)家的評(píng)論很重要,更糟糕是,他們認(rèn)為參照股評(píng)炒股也很重要。


A “flash crash” or some other extreme market fluctuation can’t hurt an investor any more than an erratic and mouthy neighbor can hurt my farm investment. Indeed, tumbling markets can be helpful to the true investor if he has cash available when prices get far out of line with values. A climate of fear is your friend when investing; a euphoric world is your enemy.

就像一個(gè)整天忽高忽低報(bào)價(jià)的鄰居不會(huì)傷害我的農(nóng)場(chǎng)投資一樣,股價(jià)崩盤或其他極端的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)不會(huì)傷害股票投資者。事實(shí)上,當(dāng)價(jià)格遠(yuǎn)低于價(jià)值時(shí),如果真正的投資者手里有閑錢,市場(chǎng)暴跌對(duì)他有利。投資時(shí),愁云密布的熊市是你的朋友;皆大歡喜的牛市是你的敵人。


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