Volatility is not a measure of risk. The problem is that those who write and teach that volatility is a measure of risk don& #39;t know how to teach a measure of risk, or they don& #39;t know how to measure risk themselves. the beta coefficient is a measure of volatility that is very mathematical, but it is wrong when it comes to measuring risk, and past volatility doesn& #39;t determine future investment risk.

波動性不是衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。問題在于，那些撰寫和教波動性可以衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的人，不知道如何教衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，或者他們本身就不知道衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。β系數(shù)是一個(gè)衡量波動性的指標(biāo)，它很數(shù)學(xué)化，但在衡量風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面是錯(cuò)誤的，過去的波動性并不能決定未來的投資風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

In the stock market, the beta coefficient came into play as stock prices fluctuated up and down every minute, and finance professors wanted to use the math they had learned to explain risk in a more technical way. But they actually took the volatility of the past and used it as a measure of all types of risk. This is nonsense, risk comes from the nature of certain businesses, there is risk in doing business, and most of that risk stems from the fact that you don& #39;t know what you& #39;re doing. If you understand the economics of the business you& #39;re in, you understand the people you& #39;re doing business with, and you know how much it& #39;s reasonable to pay, you& #39;re actually taking very little risk.

在股市中，由于股票價(jià)格每分鐘都在上下波動，而金融教授想要運(yùn)用他們所學(xué)的數(shù)學(xué)，以一種更技術(shù)性的方式來解釋風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，β系數(shù)就出現(xiàn)了。但他們實(shí)際上把過去的波動性，用在對所有類型風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的衡量上了。這是無稽之談，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)來自于某些生意的性質(zhì)，做生意是有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)大多源于你不知道自己在做什么。如果你了解你所從事的生意的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)，了解你與之做生意的人，并且你知道付出多少代價(jià)是合理的，你冒的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)其實(shí)很小。

We& #39;d be willing to lose $6 billion in a disaster, but we& #39;ve been running our disaster business for years with no risk. You know, roulette sometimes wins at 35-to-1 odds, which sounds like the roulette wheel owner is paying a ton of money, but we& #39;d much rather have a lot of roulette than bet on one number.

正如我在年度報(bào)告中指出的那樣，我們愿意在一場災(zāi)難中損失60億美元，但我們的災(zāi)難業(yè)務(wù)已經(jīng)運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)了多年，并且沒有風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。你知道，輪盤賭有時(shí)會以35比1的賠率贏錢，這聽起來像是輪盤擁有者付出了一大筆錢，但我們更愿意擁有很多輪盤賭，而不是在一個(gè)號碼上下注。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自2007年巴菲特股東大會

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報(bào)

本視頻的文字和畫面由七華軟件用人工智能技術(shù)生成