If you’d look at the 1930s, nobody could have predicted how much the automobile and airplane would transform the world. There were 2000 car companies, but now only 3 left in the US and they are hanging on barely. It was tremendous for society, but horrible for investors. Investors would have had to not only identify the right companies, but also identify the right time. The net wealth creation in airlines since Orville Wright has been next to zero. Or look at TV manufacturers. There are hundreds of millions of TV’s, RCA & GE used to produce them, but now there are no American manufacturers left.

如果你回頭看看20世紀(jì)30年代，沒人能夠預(yù)測汽車行業(yè)和航空業(yè)能改變?nèi)澜?。?dāng)時有2000家汽車公司，但是在美國現(xiàn)在只剩下3家了，并且它們都在垂死掙扎。對于社會來說這是巨大變化，對于投資者而言這簡直是噩耗。投資者不僅需要去辨識對的公司，還要抓住對的時間。自萊特兄弟之后誕生的航空業(yè)，凈財富的增長幾乎為0?；蛘呖纯碩V行業(yè)，曾經(jīng)有數(shù)不清的電視臺，RCA & GE曾經(jīng)是它們的制造者，但是現(xiàn)在沒有幾個美國制造商剩下了。

If you want a great business, take Coca-Cola. The product is unchanged, they sell 1.5 billion 8 ounce servings per day 122 years later. They have a moat; if you have a castle, someone’s going to come after you.

如果你想投資一個偉大的行業(yè)，那就選可口可樂吧?？煽诳蓸返漠a(chǎn)品從未改變過，122年后的現(xiàn)在它們每天賣出15億8盎司的量?？煽诳蓸愤€有護城河；如果你自己有一座城堡，你身后肯定有人是想沖進城堡的。

Gillette accounts for 70% of razor sales at 80% gross margins and it is the same over time. Men don’t change much. Shaving might be the only creative thing they do.

吉列占了剃須刀市場70%的份額，毛利潤率是80%，并且這個數(shù)字不會改變。男人們每天的生活也是一塵不變的，剃胡子可能是他們做過的最有創(chuàng)造力的事情。

Snickers has been the #1 candy bar for the past 40 years. If you gave me $1 billion to knock off Snickers, I can’t do it. That’s the test of a good business. You don’t knock off Coke or Gillette. Richard Branson is a marketing genius. He came in with Virgin Cola, we’re not sure what the name means, perhaps it turns you back into one, but he couldn’t knock off Coke. We look for wide moats around great economic castles. Growth is good too, but we prefer strong economics. 

士力架居于糖果棒第一的位置已經(jīng)40年了。如果你現(xiàn)在給我10億美元去擊敗士力架，我是做不到的。這是對一家好企業(yè)的考驗。你不可能打敗可口可樂和吉列剃須刀。Richard Branson是一位市場銷售天才，他當(dāng)時創(chuàng)造了處女可樂，我們不知道這個名字意味著什么，可能喝了以后能讓人變成處子之身吧，但即便這樣他也沒能打敗掉可口可樂。我們尋找的是擁有很寬的護城河的偉大企業(yè)。增長當(dāng)然很重要，但是我們還是更喜歡本身就很強大的企業(yè)。