Most investors, have not made the study of business prospects a priority in their lives. If wise, they will conclude that they do not know enough about specific businesses to predict their future earning power. I have good news for these non-professionals: The typical investor doesn’t need this skill.

大多數(shù)股民并沒有把對公司前景研究作為他們生活中的優(yōu)先事項。如果明智的話，大多數(shù)股民應(yīng)該得出結(jié)論：他們對那些具體公司的了解，還不足以預(yù)測那些公司未來的盈利能力。對這些非專業(yè)人士，我有個好消息：通常投資者不需要這種技能。

In aggregate, American business has done wonderfully over time and will continue to do so (though, most assuredly, in unpredictable fits and starts). In the 20th Century, the Dow Jones Industrials index advanced from 66 to 11,497, paying a rising stream of dividends to boot. The 21st Century will witness further gains, almost certain to be substantial. 

隨著時間的推移，美國公司作為一個整體，已經(jīng)取得了驚人的成就，并將繼續(xù)保持下去（盡管可以肯定會斷斷續(xù)續(xù)）。在20世紀(jì)，道瓊斯工業(yè)指數(shù)從66點上漲到11,497點，股息不斷增加。21世紀(jì)將見證更多的收獲，幾乎可以肯定是非常可觀的收獲。

The goal of the non-professional should not be to pick winners, but should rather be to own a cross-section of businesses that in aggregate are bound to do well. A low-cost S&P 500 index fund will achieve this goal. That’s the “what” of investing for the non-professional. The “when” is also important. The timid or beginning investor will enter the market at a time of extreme exuberance and then become disillusioned when paper losses occur. The antidote to that kind of mistiming is for an investor to accumulate shares over a long period and never to sell when the news is bad and stocks are well off their highs. 

非專業(yè)人士的目標(biāo)不應(yīng)是挑選贏家，但擁有一個跨行業(yè)的公司組合一定會表現(xiàn)良好——一只低成本的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)基金將實現(xiàn)這一目標(biāo)。對于非專業(yè)投資者來說，這就解決了“買什么”的問題?！笆裁磿r候買”也很重要。膽小的或初學(xué)的投資者會在極度繁榮的時候進入市場，然后在賬面損失發(fā)生時大失所望。對于投資者來說，解決錯誤擇時的辦法是：長期買入，不斷積攢份額，當(dāng)消息不好、股票都跌得稀里嘩啦的時候，千萬不要賣出。

Following those rules, the “know-nothing” investor who both diversifies and keeps his costs minimal is virtually certain to get satisfactory results. Indeed, the unsophisticated investor who is realistic about his shortcomings is likely to obtain better long term results than the knowledgeable professional who is blind to even a single weakness.

遵循這些規(guī)則，那些既分散投資又保持最低成本的小白投資者幾乎肯定獲得滿意結(jié)果。事實上，和知識淵博但對自己哪怕一個弱點都視而不見的專業(yè)投資者相比，對自己缺點誠實的普通投資者能夠獲得更好的長期回報。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自巴菲特2014年致股東信

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報

本視頻由七華軟件用人工智能技術(shù)生成