I don& #39;t know whether the world& #39;s up to 88million barrels or was down around 85million barrels but there& #39;s got to be some comeback, so I wouldn& #39;t be surprised the current figures getting pretty close 88 million barrels a day. That& #39;s a lot of oil to take out of the ground every day and of course there are new frontiers have been found but it is a finite number.

我不知道世界一天能生產(chǎn)多少石油，8800萬桶還是8500萬桶，不過最近有增產(chǎn)，所以如果目前的數(shù)字是8800萬桶左右我也不會(huì)驚訝。每天都有大量石油從地下被挖出，現(xiàn)在又有了新的開采地，但這終究是有限的資源。

So the one thing I can almost promise you is that oil will sell for a lot more someday. We have looked in a lot of places now and what& #39;s happening of course from the sample of the United States companies is that the smaller countries where oil is being found now are quite a bit smarter. So that they drive much more intelligent deals than I was originally the case when we went exploring around the world.

所以我能向你保證的一件事，總有一天，石油的價(jià)格會(huì)更高。以美國公司為樣本，我們看過了很多地方，現(xiàn)在發(fā)現(xiàn)石油的小國家在如何讓步方面要聰明得多，所以他們做出的交易比我最初在世界各地探險(xiǎn)時(shí)要明智得多。

I thought if we could guess the price of oil, we didn& #39;t need to run the railroad. I mean it took a lot of effort, time to run that railroad and if we know how to make money just sitting in the room trading oil why not do that instead?

我覺得如果我們真的可以預(yù)測(cè)油價(jià)，我們就不需要運(yùn)營鐵路了，這活兒既費(fèi)精力又費(fèi)時(shí)間。如果我們知道如何通過在辦公室交易石油而賺取，那為什么不這樣做呢？

But there are very few commodities that I& #39;ve ever thought I would know the direction of their movement in the next 6 months or a year. The one thing I& #39;m quite convinced of is the fact the dollar will become less valuable over time, so that the dollar price of most things will go up and maybe go up very substantially.

但是，在未來6個(gè)月或一年時(shí)間內(nèi)我能預(yù)測(cè)價(jià)格走勢(shì)的商品非常之少。但有一件事我非常確信，隨著時(shí)間的推移，美元會(huì)變得越來越不值錢，所以大多數(shù)東西的美元價(jià)格都會(huì)上漲，并且可能會(huì)大幅上漲。

I really think that an intelligent person can make more money over time thinking about assets, productive assets rather than speculating in commodities or went for that matter fixed dollar investments, but that& #39;s maybe my own bias.

我真的認(rèn)為一個(gè)聰明的人可以通過研究資產(chǎn)，尤其是生產(chǎn)性資產(chǎn)而賺錢，而不是做大宗商品投機(jī)或是做固定收益投資，但這可能是我自己的偏見。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自巴菲特對(duì)大宗商品的看法

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報(bào)

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