We try to think about two things that are important and knowable. Now there are things that are important but not knowable in our view or there are things that are knowable but not important, we don& #39;t want to cut our minds up with those.

我們試著去思考重要的事情和可知的事情。如果現(xiàn)在有一些重要但在我們看來不可知的事，或者一些可知但不重要的事，我們不會將精力放在上面。

What is important and what is knowable, and what among the things that fall within those two categories? Can we translate into some kind of an action that is useful for Berkshire. There& #39;re all kinds of important subjects that Charlie and I don& #39;t know anything about. Therefore we don& #39;t think about them.

我們要知道什么是重要的事，什么是可知的事，什么屬于這兩類事，以及我們能否將其轉(zhuǎn)化為對伯克希爾有用的某種行動。確實(shí)有各種各樣重要的問題，我和查理都不知道答案，所以我們不會去考慮這些問題。

But we do think we know something about what Coca-Cola is going to look like in 10 years, so as Gillette, Disney and some of our operating subsidiaries. We care a lot and think a lot about this, we want to be right about that, the others things are less important.

但是，我們確實(shí)對可口可樂、吉列、迪士尼或是旗下運(yùn)營的一些子公司有所了解，并會思考他們會在10年后將是什么樣子。我們對此確實(shí)非常關(guān)注，也思考了很多，我們希望在這方面是正確的，而其它事情則沒有那么重要。

For example, Coca-Cola went public in 1919 and one share cost 40 dollars. The first year it went down a little over 50 percent, at the end of the year was down to 19 dollars. If you had perfect foresight, you would have seen the world& #39;s greatest depression, you would have seen world warⅡ, you would have seen atomic bombs and hydrogen bombs, you would have seen all kinds of things. And you could always find a reason to postpone why you should buy that share of Coca-Cola. But the important thing wasn& #39;t to see they were going to be selling a billion eight ounce servings of beverages a day.

舉個例子，1919年，可口可樂上市，股價是40美元。第一年就下跌超50%到19美元。如果你有先見之明，你會看到世界上最嚴(yán)重的蕭條、第二次世界大戰(zhàn)、原子彈和氫彈爆炸，你會看到各種各樣的事情。你總能找到一個推遲購買可口可樂股份的理由。但更重要的是，你要看到他們將每天賣出10億份8盎司的飲料。

If you develop the view on these other subjects that in any way, it will forestalled you acting on this more important specific narrow view about the future of the company. You would have missed a great ride.

如果你在其它（不重要的）方面形成看法，那無論如何都會阻止你按照公司未來更重要的觀點(diǎn)來采取行動。你會錯過一次很棒的機(jī)會。

以上內(nèi)容為巴菲特經(jīng)典語錄整理

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報(bào)

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