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The best buys have been when the numbers almost tell you not to. Because then you feel so strongly about the product. And not just the fact you are getting a used cigar butt cheap. Then it is compelling. 最值得買的公司,是那些你覺得從數(shù)字上看很貴,舍不得買,但還是很想買的公司。這說明你太看好這家公司的產(chǎn)品了。這樣的公司不是別人抽剩了、扔掉的煙頭,而是讓人難以抗拒的好生意。 In terms of the qualitative, I probably understand the qualitative the moment I get the phone call. Almost every business we have bought has taken five or ten minutes in terms of analysis. 在定性方面,我在電話里和對方聊幾句,就能把定性因素搞明白。我們買入的所有公司,我們花在分析上的時間都只有五分鐘、十分鐘左右。 If you don’t know enough to know about the business instantly, you won’t know enough in a month or in two months. You have to have sort of the background of understanding and knowing what you do or don’t understand. That is the key. It is defining your circle of competence. 一門生意,要是你不能一眼看懂,再花一兩個月的時間,你還是看不懂。要看懂一門生意,必須有足夠的背景知識才行,而且要清楚自己知道什么,不知道什么。這是關(guān)鍵。我常說的能力圈就是這個意思,要清楚自己的能力圈。 Everybody has got a different circle of competence. The important thing is not how big the circles, the important thing is the size of the circle; the important thing is staying inside the circle. And if that circle only has 30 companies in it out of 1000s on the big board, as long as you know which 30 they are, you will be OK. And you should know those businesses well enough so you don’t need to read lots of work. Now I did a lot of work in the earlier years just getting familiar with businesses and the way I would do that is use what Phil Fisher would call, the “Scuttlebutt Approach.” 每個人都有自己的能力圈,重要的不是能力圈有多大,而是待在能力圈的范圍之內(nèi)。如果主板中有幾千家公司,你的能力圈只涵蓋其中的 30 家,只要你清楚是哪 30 家,就可以了。你要對這 30 家公司特別了解,不是說你要讀很多東西,做很多功課,才能把它們弄明白。我年輕的時候,為了熟悉各行各業(yè)的公司,做過大量功課。我做功課的方法是和菲利普?費雪學的,所謂的“四處打聽”的方法。 I have done that in the past on the business I felt I could understand so I don’t have to do that anymore. The nice thing about investing is that you don’t have to learn anything new. 我年輕的時候挑我覺得自己能看懂的公司,下了很大功夫,現(xiàn)在用不著重新做功課了。這是做投資的一個好處,不是一出來什么新東西,就一定要跟著學。 |
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