I would argue that there are going to be plenty of opportunities. And part of the reason there are going to be plenty of opportunities, the tech doesn’t make any difference for any of that. New things coming along don’t take away the opportunities.

我認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)上還是有很多機(jī)會(huì)，因?yàn)榧夹g(shù)變革并不會(huì)帶來(lái)任何改變，新事物的出現(xiàn)并不會(huì)剝奪投資機(jī)會(huì)。

What gives you opportunities is other people doing dumb things. Well, the 58 years we’ve been running Berkshire, I would say there’s been a great increase in the number of people doing dumb things. The reason they do it to some extent is because they can get money from other people so much easier than when we started.

人們干了傻事就會(huì)創(chuàng)造投資機(jī)會(huì)。在我們經(jīng)營(yíng)伯克希爾的58年里，干傻事的人越來(lái)越多了。他們這么做的原因是，在某種程度上，他們能比我們創(chuàng)業(yè)時(shí)更容易從別人那里拿到錢(qián)。

So, you could start 10 or 15 dumb insurance companies in the last ten years, and you could become rich if you were adroit at it, whether the business succeeded or not, and the underwriters got paid, and the lawyers got paid. And if that’s done on a large scale — which it couldn’t be done 58 years ago.

所以，在過(guò)去10年里，你可以創(chuàng)辦10家或者15家愚蠢的保險(xiǎn)公司，只要你精于此道，無(wú)論業(yè)務(wù)成功與否，承保人都能拿到錢(qián)，律師也能拿到錢(qián)，你就會(huì)成為富翁。這在58年前是做不到的。

You couldn’t get the money to do some of the dumb things that we wanted to do, fortunately. And so, I think that investing has disappeared so much from this huge capitalistic market that anybody can play in, but that the big money is in selling other people ideas.

幸運(yùn)的是，你沒(méi)有錢(qián)去做一些我們想做的蠢事。因此，我認(rèn)為投資已經(jīng)從這個(gè)任何人都可以參與的巨大資本主義市場(chǎng)中消失了，而賺大錢(qián)的是向別人兜售創(chuàng)意。

And I think if you’re running small amounts of money,  the opportunities will be greater. But then Charlie and I always differed on this subject. He likes to tell me how gloomy the world is, and I like to tell him, “We’ll find something.” And so far, we’ve both be kind of right.

我認(rèn)為，如果你投入的是小額資金，機(jī)會(huì)就會(huì)更多。但在這個(gè)問(wèn)題上，查理和我總是意見(jiàn)不一。他喜歡告訴我這個(gè)世界有多灰暗，而我喜歡告訴他 "我們會(huì)找到機(jī)會(huì)的"。到目前為止，我們都是對(duì)的。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自2022年巴菲特答股東問(wèn)

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報(bào)

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