If we find a problem with the competitive side of a company, it& #39;s impossible to foresee the nature of business for the next 5, 10 or 20 years, and investing is about predicting the future. You don& #39;t get rewarded for what has happened, you only get rewarded for what will happen in the future. The past is only useful if you want insight into the future, and sometimes the past doesn& #39;t give you insight into the future.

如果我們發(fā)現(xiàn)了一家公司競爭方面存在問題，那就無法預(yù)見未來5年、10年或20年的商業(yè)本質(zhì)，而投資是需要預(yù)測未來的。你不會為已經(jīng)發(fā)生的事情得到回報，你只能為未來發(fā)生的事情獲得回報。過去只有在你想要洞察未來時才有用，有時候過去并不能讓你洞察未來。

If you find a stable business that may give you a good guide to what will happen in the future, then you don& #39;t need a big margin of safety. Sometimes we are able to buy very good businesses for a quarter of their value, but we don& #39;t get that opportunity very often.

如果你找到一個穩(wěn)定的生意，它可能會給你一個很好的指引，告訴你未來會發(fā)生什么，那么你不需要一個很大的安全邊際。有時候，我們能夠以價值的四分之一買下很好的企業(yè)，但我們不會經(jīng)常遇到這種機(jī)會。

Does that mean you should sit there, wait for a good price, wait 10 or 15 years and do nothing? We don& #39;t wait for good prices all the time now, and if we can acquire good businesses at a reasonable valuation, we& #39;ll continue to do that. If a business grows to a point where we feel that the industry it& #39;s in, the competitive position, or something else is so dangerous that we can& #39;t value it, then we& #39;re not going to fool ourselves by setting aside some extra big margin of safety.

這是否意味著你應(yīng)該坐在那里，等待好價格，等個10年15年，什么都不做？我們現(xiàn)在不是一直等好價格，如果我們能以合理的估值收購好的企業(yè)，我們會繼續(xù)這么做。如果一項業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展到一定程度，我們覺得它所在的行業(yè)、競爭地位或其他東西非常危險，以至于我們無法對它進(jìn)行估值，那我們不會通過預(yù)留一些額外的大安全邊際來欺騙自己。

以上內(nèi)容節(jié)選自2007年巴菲特股東大會

由數(shù)字人巴菲特播報

本視頻由七華軟件用人工智能技術(shù)生成