在投資圈，蘇世民的名字無人不知。這位擁有中文名的老外，在國內(nèi)有著非常不錯的人緣，清華大學(xué)蘇世民書院由他最初捐贈設(shè)立，新書封面印刷著“周小川和馬云推薦”，他創(chuàng)辦的黑石在國內(nèi)商業(yè)地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域也有一席之地。

回顧蘇世民的成長歷程，從耶魯?shù)焦?，他給老師和同學(xué)留下的印象是：充滿動力、雄心、自信和誠信。正是在這種精英教育的熏陶下，他確立了經(jīng)世濟(jì)民、不甘平庸的人生信念，也奠定了日后黑石精英管理、追求卓越的文化體系。

一路走來，黑石并非一帆風(fēng)順，蘇世民告訴遠(yuǎn)川研究所，“我記得黑石成立之初，我給關(guān)系最好的聯(lián)系人寫了四百多封信介紹公司，但沒人回復(fù)，也沒人想給我們業(yè)務(wù)”。

轉(zhuǎn)折點來自保誠的1億美元投資，“我們知道，接下來其他人也會跟投，我永遠(yuǎn)不會忘記那個時刻”。功夫不負(fù)有心人，黑石的第一支基金吸引了大都會人壽、通用電氣、日本日興證券等行業(yè)巨頭。從此，蘇世民開啟了屬于自己的時代。

35年來，秉承著永不賠錢、做多中國、嚴(yán)守紀(jì)律的投資理念，蘇世民帶領(lǐng)黑石度過一次次危機(jī)。截止2019年末，黑石管理規(guī)模達(dá)5710億美元，在2020胡潤全球富豪榜上，蘇世民以1400億元的財富名列第54位，是華爾街當(dāng)之無愧的“私募之王”。

今年3月，中信出版社出版了蘇世民的新書《蘇世民：我的經(jīng)驗與教訓(xùn)》。4月，遠(yuǎn)川研究所也有幸對蘇世民做了一次獨(dú)家專訪，就全球經(jīng)濟(jì)如何擺脫衰退進(jìn)行了探討。

回到當(dāng)下，全球疫情持續(xù)蔓延，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)挑戰(zhàn)仍在，蘇世民當(dāng)時樂觀的看法與全球化的視野依舊值得我們學(xué)習(xí)與借鑒，故再次推送供讀者參考研究。

Economic

1. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：What do you think is the biggest difference between this financial crisis happened in 2020 and that in 2008 ? What measures have you taken to fight against the crisis?

您認(rèn)為今年此次經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)與2008年金融危機(jī)相比，最大的區(qū)別是什么？您采取了什么樣的措施來應(yīng)對危機(jī)？

Schwarzman：I have been through a lot of different market cycles in my career, and without a doubt this one is far reaching. However, it is important to remember that the economic impact of this crisis is the result of voluntary decisions to cease business activity – not a normal downturn.

蘇世民：在我的職業(yè)生涯中，我已經(jīng)歷經(jīng)了很多次市場周期波動，毫無疑問這次危機(jī)的影響是深遠(yuǎn)的。然而，我們依然要記住，今年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)所遭受的打擊是人們自愿暫停商業(yè)活動的結(jié)果，而不像2008年那樣是一次尋常的衰退。

Schwarzman：Another fundamental difference between now and 2008 is that the US banking system today is on much stronger footing. While some companies and sectors will experience difficulty, the system is in better condition. Governments around the world appear to be providing strong support and economic stimulus in the near term.

蘇世民：另一個根本區(qū)別，是美國的銀行體系相較四年前更加穩(wěn)固，盡管今年有些行業(yè)和公司會遭遇困難，我們的系統(tǒng)的運(yùn)行狀態(tài)仍優(yōu)于2008年的情況。除此之外，各國政府似乎也都在短期內(nèi)提供了強(qiáng)有力的支持和經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激。

Schwarzman：As Blackstone, first and foremost, we are deeply saddened by the human impact of COVID-19. Our primary focus has and will continue to be on the safety of Blackstone’s people and the employees of our portfolio companies. We’re hopeful that the measures to control the spread will have a meaningful impact and things can soon begin returning to normal, as they have started to in China.

蘇世民：對黑石集團(tuán)而言，首先，我們?yōu)樾鹿谝咔閷θ祟惤】档挠绊懮罡斜?。我們的第一要旨始終是保障黑石以及被投公司員工的安全，希望全球能像中國一樣有效控制病毒的蔓延，盡快回到正軌。

Schwarzman：Blackstone is in exceptionally strong shape. The firm has no net debt, significant capital reserves, fund structures that prohibit short term redemptions by our investors, and over $150 billion of dry powder to deploy in high-quality companies during the current market dislocation. This structure is what helped us weather past crises (such as the Global Financial Crisis) and still deliver outstanding performance for our investors around the world.

蘇世民：黑石是一個強(qiáng)大的公司。在當(dāng)前這樣一個市場失序的階段，我們沒有凈負(fù)債，資本儲備充足、基金管理結(jié)構(gòu)成熟，可以避免擠兌現(xiàn)象發(fā)生，對高質(zhì)量公司的現(xiàn)金待投量超過一千五百億美元。正是這樣的架構(gòu)幫助我們度過了包括08年金融危機(jī)在內(nèi)的各種突發(fā)事件，并在今天繼續(xù)為我們?nèi)蚍秶鷥?nèi)的投資者提供出色回報。

Schwarzman：Our confidence in this approach remains stronger than ever. In the midst of the crisis, we are actively working with our portfolio company leadership teams to help them manage through this difficult time.

蘇世民：在如今的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中，我們的信心比以往更強(qiáng)，我們正積極地與投資公司的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)團(tuán)隊合作，以幫助他們渡過難關(guān)。

Schwarzman：The US government’s financial stimulus package does all the right things – it provides a direct infusion of money for the unemployed and individuals in society who need immediate support, gives significant funding for small businesses so they can keep people hired and on their healthcare plans, and supports larger corporations so they can bridge this period of shutdown.

蘇世民：與此同時，美國政府的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案亦有所作為——它為失業(yè)者以及任何需要緊急援助的人提供了直接的金錢支持，給予小公司大量資金以確保其員工不被裁員，醫(yī)療計劃的正常運(yùn)行，并且支援大公司挺過這段休業(yè)期。

Schwarzman：The initial financial stimulus bill is probably not the full amount of support that the US economy will ultimately need, but as a start, it is really big. The Federal Reserve, our central bank, is doing a variety of things to make sure credit is flowing through the US economy. This, combined with the stimulus bill passed by Congress, are significant and positive efforts to ensure the health of our economy through this period.

蘇世民：盡管最初的刺激法案金額或許不足以使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)完全恢復(fù)，但作為一個開始，它的效果不可小覷。美聯(lián)儲也正竭盡全力地確保經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中的信貸流動，這樣的措施加上國會通過的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激法案，將極大程度地維持美國經(jīng)濟(jì)的健康發(fā)展。

Schwarzman：You are seeing countries across the developed world take similar steps. China, Korea and Japan – which faced this crisis before Western countries – have responded very well to the virus. I think you will see countries looking to each other for examples on how to best respond.  

蘇世民：你也看到了，很多發(fā)達(dá)國家在采取同樣的措施。更早經(jīng)歷疫情的中國、韓國和日本已經(jīng)做出了很好的示范。相信各國在接下來將會互相借鑒學(xué)習(xí)，以更好地應(yīng)對這場疫情。

2. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：How zero or negative interest rate will affect our economy? In the future, what’s the best place for our money? What asset will you choose?

您認(rèn)為零利率甚至是負(fù)利率將如何影響我們的經(jīng)濟(jì)？在未來，什么樣的資產(chǎn)將是最優(yōu)的投資選擇？

Schwarzman：Even before the current crisis, there was a global trend towards low and even negative interest rates. I had some fear that this would leave countries in a challenging position during a downturn, like we are facing today. But right now, it is important that central banks do whatever they can to support global economies.

蘇世民：其實早在危機(jī)到來之前，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)就已經(jīng)有了零利率甚至是負(fù)利率的趨勢。我有些擔(dān)心負(fù)利率會使本就處于經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷期的國家雪上加霜，就像我們現(xiàn)在一樣。但幸好現(xiàn)在全球的央行都在竭盡所能地支持經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。

Schwarzman：A low interest rate environment can make alternatives more attractive for investors. Blackstone has proven to have a strong track record across cycles, including in challenging times like the Global Financial Crisis.

蘇世民：一個低利率的環(huán)境會使替代性投資品變得更有吸引力。事實證明，黑石集團(tuán)在包括全球金融危機(jī)在內(nèi)的各經(jīng)濟(jì)周期中都保持著良好的業(yè)績記錄。

3. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：Is the widening gap between the rich and the poor an endogenous problem of the capitalist system? What role does globalization play in this process.

貧富差距的擴(kuò)大是否是資本主義的內(nèi)生性問題？全球化在這樣一個階段扮演著怎樣的角色？

Schwarzman：I agree that this is an issue. But I believe it is less about income inequality than income insufficiency. A large portion of the United States and other countries lack savings and simply are not earning enough for a variety of reasons. One of these is globalization, where wealth moved around the world. This does not mean that capitalism is broken.

蘇世民：貧富差距擴(kuò)大確實是一個問題，但問題可能出在窮人收入不夠上，而不是收入不平等導(dǎo)致的。很多人都不儲蓄，或是因為種種原因收入不足。全球化可能是其中的一個原因，因為財富在全球范圍內(nèi)流動，但這并不意味著資本主義的破滅。

Schwarzman：I have spoken about steps that could be taken in the US to solve this, including increasing the minimum wage. The biggest long-term solution is to improve our education system to make sure that we are preparing our population for the jobs of the future that rely on technical skills and computer science.

蘇世民：我之前已經(jīng)提過減少貧富差距的辦法，比如提高最低工資水平。最行之有效的長期解決方案應(yīng)當(dāng)是提升我們的教育體系，以確保大家能夠依靠自己的技術(shù)、知識來找工作。

Sino-US Relations

4. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：How will the Sino-US relations develop after the COVID-19 epidemic? Will the epidemic cause another resurgence of anti-globalization waves?

這次疫情過后，中美關(guān)系將如何發(fā)展？反全球化浪潮是否會再次引發(fā)？

Schwarzman：There is some sensitivity on both sides relating to the current crisis. But at the end of the day, when the immediate health concerns pass, the world will want to restart their economies and it will be mutually beneficial for the US and China to work together.

蘇世民：疫情當(dāng)下，中美雙方都有些敏感。但最終，隨著對疫情的顧慮消除，世界各國將重啟經(jīng)濟(jì)，中美合作將恢復(fù)互利共贏。

5. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：Do you think China and the United States can avoid the Thucydides trap?

您認(rèn)為中國和美國能擺脫修昔底德陷阱嗎？

Schwarzman：I believe they can. The phase one trade agreement demonstrated the ability to work together on major areas of disagreement. I believe both countries recognize it is in their mutual benefit to iron out tensions.

蘇世民：我相信他們可以。第一階段的貿(mào)易協(xié)定顯示出中美在主要分歧領(lǐng)域已經(jīng)達(dá)成一致，我相信兩國都意識到消除緊張關(guān)系對雙方都有利。

6. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：Some media said that you are the bridge between American and Chinese like Kissinger. Do you take that role?

之前有媒體說你像基辛格一樣，是連接中美關(guān)系的橋梁。你會接受這樣的設(shè)定嗎？

Schwarzman：When asked by the US Administration to help in the trade conversations, I was happy to do so. I am proud to have many great relationships in China and was able to serve as a messenger at times when asked by the Administration.

蘇世民：當(dāng)美國政府要求我在貿(mào)易對話中提供幫助時，我感到很開心。我很自豪自己不僅能夠在中國擁有關(guān)系和人脈，還能充當(dāng)美國政府的信使。

China

7. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：What is the future layout and plan of Blackstone Group in China? What do you think of the future of China& #39;s economy?

黑石集團(tuán)在中國的未來展望和計劃是什么？你認(rèn)為中國經(jīng)濟(jì)未來將駛向何方？

Schwarzman：Blackstone has been active in China since 1992 and will continue to look for compelling, long term investment opportunities.

蘇世民：自1992年，黑石一直活躍在中國市場，未來，我們將繼續(xù)在這里尋找有吸引力的長期投資機(jī)會。

Schwarzman：Though China is several months ahead of the United States in dealing with COVID-19, it is still too early to predict the exact near-term economic outlook. There is no question that this pandemic will have economic impacts that last beyond the initial period of controlling the virus. But I think by 2021, we will be through the vast majority of this, countries will be back at work with different levels of recovery, and we will eventually see economic growth rates similar to before the pandemic.

蘇世民：盡管中國比美國早好幾個月應(yīng)對疫情，但要準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測近期的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景仍為時過早。毫無疑問，這場流行病將對經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來深遠(yuǎn)影響。預(yù)計到2021年，大多數(shù)難關(guān)都將過去，各國將以不同的程度逐漸恢復(fù)，我們最終將看到經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率回到疫情前水平。

8. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：There are lots of new-generation entrepreneurs in China, many of them are your friends, who impressed you most?

現(xiàn)在中國有很多新一代企業(yè)家，其中有不少人是你的朋友。誰給你帶來的印象最深刻？

Schwarzman：I have met so many impressive entrepreneurs from China, it would be impossible for me to pick one. Entrepreneurs often play an outsized role when responding to unknown situations like today’s crisis. I’m confident that entrepreneurs – whether in the biomedical field or otherwise – will find innovative ways to treat, prevent or otherwise help society confront this problem.

蘇世民：我見過很多令人印象深刻的中國企業(yè)家，讓我選出一個太難了。在應(yīng)對像今天這樣未知的情況時，企業(yè)家往往會發(fā)揮巨大的作用。我相信，無論是在生物醫(yī)學(xué)領(lǐng)域還是其他領(lǐng)域，企業(yè)家都將找到創(chuàng)新的方法來應(yīng)對、預(yù)防或是幫助社會解決這一問題。

9. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：Blackstone owns a lot of commercial real estate in China, what do you think of China& #39;s real estate industry and house price?

黑石集團(tuán)在中國擁有很多的商業(yè)地產(chǎn)，你對中國的地產(chǎn)業(yè)以及房價有什么看法？

Schwarzman：In real estate, we are high conviction investors behind themes that have strong tailwinds. For example, we continue to see compelling opportunities in logistics from the growth in e-commerce and demand for warehouses.

蘇世民：在房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域，我們有很強(qiáng)的信心，順應(yīng)風(fēng)口去投資。例如，由于電子商務(wù)的興起，倉庫的需求增長，我們在物流領(lǐng)域嗅到了很有吸引力的投資機(jī)遇。

Schwarzman：In China, we have warehouses that are located in key distribution hubs and leased to leading third-party logistics and Chinese tech companies. We’re also focused on Grade A office assets in China and more broadly in Asia, where we continue to see positive demand.

蘇世民：在中國，我們將倉庫建在主要的物流分銷中心，并且把它們租給領(lǐng)先的第三方物流和科技公司。我們還著眼于中國和亞洲的A級寫字樓資產(chǎn)，在其中看到了旺盛的需求增長。

Blackstone

10. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：What’s the key factor that makes the high return of Blackstone? What investment principles did you stick to?

黑石集團(tuán)創(chuàng)造高收益率的關(guān)鍵因素是什么？你堅持著什么樣的投資理念？

Schwarzman：People often smile whenever they hear my number one rule for investing, but it’s just that simple: Don’t lose money.

蘇世民：我的第一條投資原則是：不要賠錢。人們通常會對它報以微笑，覺得過于簡單，但其實就是這樣。

Schwarzman：At Blackstone we have established an investment process that helps us accomplish that basic concept. Our investment decisions are all about disciplined, dispassionate, and robust risk assessment.

蘇世民：在黑石，我們構(gòu)建了一個投資流程來幫助實現(xiàn)這一基本概念，我們的投資決策都是建立在嚴(yán)格、冷靜和穩(wěn)健的風(fēng)險評估上的。

Schwarzman：This discipline is even more critical in today’s environment with high levels of volatility and uncertainty. We must continue to focus on our process and the potential downsides of any decision we make on behalf of our investors.

蘇世民：在當(dāng)下高風(fēng)險和高不確定性的市場環(huán)境中，這一條投資理念甚至更為關(guān)鍵。我們必須繼續(xù)關(guān)注我們的投資流程，以及代表投資者所作出的任何決策的潛在負(fù)面影響。

11. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：The global financial markets are moving towards turbulence and chaos. How the Blackstone Group protect against the Black Swan events?

全球金融市場正在走向動蕩和混亂，黑石集團(tuán)將如何防范黑天鵝事件？

Schwarzman：It is impossible to predict truly unforeseen events like what we are experiencing today. But as a firm, Blackstone has built a culture that is constantly looking for and incorporating downside risks into our decision making process. We are also intentional about learning from our past experiences and applying that wisdom to each new deal. In my book I outline some of the key lessons I have learned over my career and how that has changed our approach to investing.

蘇世民：我們無法預(yù)測未來，就像事前我們無法預(yù)測今年會發(fā)生疫情一樣。但作為一家公司，黑石在做決策的時候，始終考慮到潛在的下行風(fēng)險。我們同樣有意地從過去的經(jīng)驗中吸取教訓(xùn)，并應(yīng)用到之后的每一次交易中。在我的書里，我概述了自己在職業(yè)生涯中學(xué)到的一些重要經(jīng)驗，以及這些經(jīng)驗將如何改變我們的投資方式。

Personal

12.遠(yuǎn)川研究所：What’s the most tough time in your life? And what’s the turning point?

你生命中最難度過的是哪一階段？轉(zhuǎn)折點是什么？

Schwarzman：My life and career have certainly not followed a clean, upward trajectory. I have had intense moments of doubt and disappointment, especially as we faced rejection from investor after investor in the first days of Blackstone. I remember writing more than 400 letters to my best contacts introducing Blackstone after Pete and I launched and no one responded or wanted to give us business.

蘇世民：我的生活和事業(yè)顯然沒有遵循一道清晰向上的軌跡。我有過很多懷疑和失望的時刻，尤其是在黑石面世的頭幾天，我們不斷地遭遇投資者的拒絕。我記得在彼得（Peter G. Peterson）和我成立黑石之后，我給我關(guān)系最好的聯(lián)系人寫了四百多封信介紹我們的公司，但沒人回復(fù)，也沒人想給我們業(yè)務(wù)。

Schwarzman：The turning point for Blackstone was when we received a commitment from Prudential – then one of the top investors in private equity – to invest in our first fund. We knew that others would follow. It is a moment I will never forget. Through my book, I hope to convey some of the key lessons from my life to help others.

蘇世民：事情的轉(zhuǎn)折點是我們收到了當(dāng)時私人股本領(lǐng)域的頂尖投資方之一保誠公司的承諾，他們將投資我們的第一只基金。我們知道，接下來其他人也會跟投。我永遠(yuǎn)不會忘記那個時刻。我希望可以通過書傳達(dá)一些自己從生活中學(xué)到的經(jīng)驗教訓(xùn)，從而幫助到別人。

13. 遠(yuǎn)川研究所：You’ve said that Peterson is the person who infect you most. What’s the most important thing you’ve learned from him?

你曾說過彼得是帶給你最大影響的人。你從他身上學(xué)到的最重要的東西是什么？

Schwarzman：Pete taught me the value of a great mentor and partner. I wouldn’t be where I am today without Pete’s guidance and friendship.  I have tried to follow his lead and play this role for others as well.

蘇世民：彼得讓我明白良師益友的價值。沒有彼得的指導(dǎo)和支持，我不會有今天的成就。我試著以他為榜樣，也為別人扮演這個角色。